SUCKER BETS---(part 27) by Joe Takach

Do you play any of the new polysurfaces?
If not, you soon will be.
All the country’s major racetracks will be converting from dirt to poly in the very near future. California’s major tracks will be full poly by the end of 2007. Hollywood is now running its inaugural poly meet, Del Mar will follow in July of 2007 and Santa Anita will be poly for the 2007 Oak Tree meet.
Wanna avoid becoming a “sucker” before you do any serious wagering over these new “surfaces of the future”?
Then listen up and transfer what’s below to your home polysurface if not the same as my beloved sunny Southern California circuit!
At the time of this writing (November 2006), the new Hollywood Park polysurface is a mere 2 weeks old with only 61 races in the history books.
While I’ve dramatically cut down the size of my wagers, I have begun to occasionally wager over the new polysurface----and successfully if I might add.
Why all the caution you ask?
Real simple.
I didn’t wanna become a “sucker” by playing a surface that I knew absolutely nothing about. These last 2 weeks have been most enlightening, as will be the next 5 weeks before the brief 7 week meet ends.
What am I tracking?
Anything and everything that I think will put more money in my pocket.
To start off, standard fare for any surface should always be running profiles. Running profiles depict the exact “type” of running style that wins any specific race, at any specific distance, over any specific surface.
Along with running profiles you gotta closely watch every race more than once for running biases, noting exactly what paths the winners are running in from start to finish. Are they on the inside, the middle, or the outside?
Equibase charts, while usually quite accurate depicting how many wide a horse was during a race, fail to offer the reader the exact paths that the winners traveled.
In order to properly interpret running biases, one must know exactly what running paths winners were actually running in, rather that merely saying “so and so” was 4 wide down the backstretch. That doesn’t mean that he was actually in the 4 path because he was
4 wide, he could have been in the 7, 8 or 9 path with horses to his inside well off the rail.
In addition to running profiles and running biases over the new Hollywood polysurface, I’m also tracking post position wins by specific distances.
The “Mickey Mouse” post position stats in the track program or over the internet simply don’t break it down far enough. The 1 post position going 6 furlongs might be producing all the winners from the 1 hole and the other sprint distances might be producing nothing. Get the picture?
My next major area of investigation is “track-specific” breeding.
Exactly what sires, grandsires and damsires produce winners over this new Hollywood polysurface?
I really don’t care what sires, grandsires and damsires win over the Keeneland or Woodbine polysurfaces. Hollywood’s polysurface is completely different than either of those tracks, so it’s a “no brainer” that winning sires will be quite different.
I’m not only keeping track of winning sires, grandsires, and damsires, but doing it by number of starts to generate accurate “track-specific” win percentages. It simply doesn’t get any better than that from a pedigree angle.
Did I forget to mention winning trainer/jockey combinations over the new polysurface?
Yep, I’m tracking that too.
Some good jockeys are riding very well over this new polysurface and some talented jockeys are not. A few good trainers are “on fire” and other solid trainers have yet to win a race.
What else?
I’m tracking horses who last ran over any turf surface and how they fare first time over the new Hollywood polysurface, breaking it down to 1st, 2nd, 3rd and 4th place finishes. My eyes have been “opened” to say the least.
I’m also tracking horses that have had at least one workout over the new polysurface before actually racing over it. Yet another “eye-opener”!
I’m even tracking water!
We had another rainless week in sunny Southern California. And yes, it’s hard living in “Paradise” every day and playing horses, but somehow the entire staff of the DAILY SCHTW continues to drag themselves out of bed every morning only to face sunshine and 70 to 80 degrees “ad nauseum”. Tough work, but somebody has to do it!
With 2 weeks of live polytrack racing and 61 polysurface events completed, one thing is becoming painfully obvious to the entire staff of the DAILY SCHTW as daily on track observers.
Water increases the speed of this new Hollywood polysurface and that same “speed” carries further. We had a relatively fast surface Wednesday thru early Saturday afternoon and saw the water trucks putting water on the surface during the running of the cards---at least until midway thru Saturday’s card.
Suddenly on Sunday as we began a card with a Pick 6 carryover of $143,041, a water truck was never seen putting moisture on the polysurface during the running of the entire card. This likely contributed to 2 deep closers winning the 6th and 7th races, offering mutuel returns of $11.60 and $60.20. These closers obviously contributed to the double Pick 6 carryover of $541,201 on Wednesday 11/15/06.
Was this done on purpose on Sunday by racetrack management to help fuel the double Pick 6 carryover that increases their Wednesday handle which increases Hollywood’s overall profit? Who knows?
We’re not so sure the “Suits” that run Hollywood are that smart to purposely manipulate the polysurface to alter outcomes. All racing surfaces, be they natural or unnatural, can be altered by track maintenance every day and most are.
The bottom line so far is that the new Hollywood polysurface seems to be very “speed friendly” when we see the water trucks and not so speed friendly when we don’t.
To bring it altogether in closing, you can see that there is a ton of things you gotta keep track of over any surface, especially a new one that you’ve never played before.
If you don’t, you’ll be making a ton of “sucker bets”!
All the above information for Hollywood’s new polysurface is compiled by the entire staff of the DAILY SCHTW and published weekly in our new DAILY SCHTW WEEKLY POLYTRACK REPORT.
It is available on our website at www.joe-takach.com .

PART 28----MORE “SUCKER” BETS

© Joe Takach 2006