SUCKER BETS---(part 9)
17---RETURNS TO A DRY TRACK AFTER A BIG WIN ON A WET SURFACE by Joe Takach

In addition to the opportunity to physically inspect every runner and watch them warm up before wagering, another advantage to my being on track every day is overhearing other handicappers and their approaches to our game.
With well over 40 years of attendance, I’ve come to the obvious conclusion that most handicappers are one dimensional in their handicapping. They label themselves as speed or pace handicappers, jockey-trainer handicappers, class handicappers, trip handicappers, turf handicappers and “physicality” handicappers etc.
While each type of handicapper surely looks at different factors in every race, by one dimensional I mean most will revert back to their favorite approach.
This includes yours truly.
Any horse that fails to pass my stringent paddock inspection and/or fails to get at least four furlongs of light cantering before loading into the starting gate quickly becomes a “non bet”-------period! And I might add the “non bet” comes with positively no exceptions! I don’t care how fast he is or was, or his pace advantage, or how classy he might be, or his great trainer-jockey combo, or his breeding, or his great post position, or the great anticipated trip he’s about to get etc.
Horses aren’t machines even though they are treated as such by “Joe Public” every time he looks at the past performances. Horses are warm-blooded athletes that have good days and bad days just like every other athlete on the planet. When they don’t “look” right in the paddock and fail to warm up properly in the pre race, they very rarely win no matter how strong their “backpaper” might be.
That’s how a “physicality handicapper” looks at every horse in every race.
A good speed handicapper looks at every horse in every race as well, but not necessarily in a physical sense. He uses the past performances to generate his speed figures to find the fastest of the fast.
And as with myself, who wouldn’t bet a good looking or a bad looking horse that fails to properly warm up no matter how strong his “backpaper”, good speed handicappers wouldn’t think of betting proven slower animals against proven faster ones under any circumstances.
This brings us to our next “sucker bet” that will never befall a “good speed handicapper” because he knows better after years of mathematical interpretation.
I’m sure that they would agree with me when I state that horses who put up “Breeder’s Cup” numbers atop a wet surface never run back to that number until the track comes up wet again.
I’ll try to simplify this.
Handicappers who use the Beyer numbers in the past performances (crude as they might be), have seen horses running and winning in the 80s. All of a sudden those same horses that habitually run in the low 80s, put up a number in the high 90s or low 100s while winning or finishing very close up over a wet surface.
Accomplished speed handicappers know that the inflated figure was due to the increase of the inherent speed of the wet track and not to the horse dramatically improving while running a huge and uncharacteristic “number”. These inflated numbers are immediately thrown out whenever assessing a horse’s true speed ability.
But to other less knowledgeable punters, a “number” is a “number” is a “number”, no matter how earned or over what type of surface.
These inflated wet track numbers are “sucker bets”.

18---FIRST RACE BACK AFTER A 12 MONTH OR MORE LAYOFF
Do you frequently bet horses that haven’t raced in a year?
I can hear somebody out there yelling “who in their right mind would bet a horse that’s been away that long”.
I’ve done it in the past, though very infrequently. And most likely I’ll do it in the future if the isolated situation feels right.
But the key words above are “very infrequently” and “isolated situation”.
I’ll give you a brief and uncomplicated example. There are certain trainers on my Southern California circuit who are fully capable of winning with a horse coming off an extended vacation of 12 months or longer.
How do I know?
I’ve bet them in the past and have cashed generous mutuels and have absolutely no fear of betting them in the future. They have very specific returning morning worktabs for their returning vacationers that literally “scream” their horse is quite “ready to run”.
These talented conditioners are very few and very far between because it is a monumental accomplishment to get horses into top condition to win when returning from 3, 4 or 5 month layoffs let alone 12 or more month disappearances.
There are 6 trainers on my circuit out of more than 500 that I’ll bet off extended year layups. And I might add that when these talented trainers do win off long layoffs, their horses always physically “look the part” in the paddock and always warm up very strongly in the pre-race before loading.
The rest of the trainers on my Southern California circuit are “sucker bets” when bringing horses off extended vacations of a year or more. This is not to say that these same trainers aren’t excellent with 3, 4, 5 or 6 month returnees where their horses are anything but “sucker bets”, but when you get into that 10, 11, 12 month and longer range, only a handful of trainers know how do it with any regularity.
What about your main racing circuit if not Southern California?
Since I’ve had the lifelong advantage of playing the major circuits on both the East and West coasts for more years than I’d like to admit, I can say with confidence that when it comes to bringing horses back from long layoffs, neither coast has any advantage. There are only a handful of trainers in the East that I’d bet off a long hiatus.
You’ll have to do your own investigations no matter what circuits you play to see what trainers, if any, are worth noting whenever they enter a long vacationer.
The rest?
As mentioned above, they are “sucker bets” when it comes to year or more layups!

PART 10----MORE “SUCKER” BETS

© Joe Takach 2006